Investor intelligence · Dubai Land Department data · updated daily
Know where Dubai prices are growing, where they are stable, and where the risk is
Five years of registered transactions, scored community by community — plus the bulk buyers, land and building deals behind each month. Summaries are free. Full reports go to investors we approve.
Month, quarter, half-year and year to date
Registered sales across Dubai and the median price per sq ft, each period against the one before it. Green ▲ up, red ▼ down. Source: Dubai Land Department open data.
Monthly price index
Median AED per sq ft each month, Oct 25 = 100.
| Month | Index | Change | Median AED / sq ft | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | 100.0 | — | AED 1,709 | 19,722 |
| Nov 25 | 105.3 | ▲ 5.3% | AED 1,799 | 18,730 |
| Dec 25 | 109.4 | ▲ 3.9% | AED 1,870 | 19,171 |
| Jan 26 | 104.3 | ▼ 4.7% | AED 1,782 | 17,413 |
| Feb 26 | 101.6 | ▼ 2.5% | AED 1,737 | 17,024 |
| Mar 26 | 101.9 | ▲ 0.3% | AED 1,742 | 13,510 |
| Apr 26 | 103.8 | ▲ 1.8% | AED 1,774 | 14,023 |
| May 26 | 96.4 | ▼ 7.1% | AED 1,648 | 10,274 |
| Jun 26 | 100.2 | ▲ 3.9% | AED 1,713 | 13,931 |
| Jul 26 | 101.3 | ▲ 1.1% | AED 1,732 | 14,114 |
| Aug 26 | 99.9 | ▼ 1.4% | AED 1,707 | 11,844 |
| Sept 26 | 97.8 | ▼ 2.1% | AED 1,671 | 11,297 |
What the data says · September 2026
A cooling market with firm prices
- 1Volume has normalised, price has not broken. Sales are 45% below September 2025 and the year to date is 21% behind 2025, yet the unit price per sq ft is only about 5% lower than a year ago and flat month on month. This is a slowdown in activity, not a price correction — so far.
- 2Ready property is the value play. A ready flat traded at AED 1,371/sq ft against AED 1,720 off-plan — off-plan buyers are paying a 25% premium for the payment plan. For 1-bedroom units the gap is 30%.
- 3Off-plan absorption is concentrating. Madinat Al Mataar (Dubai South) fell from 1,832 sales in August to 688; the Azizi Venice towers lost 50–76% of their August pace. Demand moved to fresh launches — Valia (Creek), Binghatti Skyterraces/Skyflame, Imtiaz RAW District 2.
- 4Buyers are trading up. Sub-AED 1M sales fell 18% month on month while AED 2–3M sales rose 15%. Mortgage registrations rose 10% to 2,982 — financed end-users are carrying the ready market.
- 5Smart money is buying land. AED 4.0B of commercial land and AED 2.5B of residential land changed hands, including 140 plots in Al Yufrah 1 and seven single deals above AED 125M. Land bought today is the supply of 2029–2031.
The economy behind the market
Population, business, banks and mortgages
Official figures as of 6 October 2026, refreshed monthly. Property demand follows people, jobs and credit, so these are the numbers to watch alongside prices.
People
- Dubai population28 Sep 2026 · Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment
- 4,807,185▲ +226,885 since January (+5.0%)
- UAE populationEnd of 2024, latest official · Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre
- 11.3 million▲ +615,687 in a year (+5.7%)
Business
- New Dubai business licencesH1 2026, mainland and free zones · Dubai Business Registration and Licensing Corporation
- 58,337▲ +58,337 new; 173,652 renewals
- New Dubai Chamber membersMarch 2026 · Dubai Chambers
- 2,70941% in real estate, renting and business services
- UAE economyQ1 2026, year on year · Central Bank of the UAE, Quarterly Economic Review
- +3.0%non-oil +4.8%; full-year 2026 forecast +1.6%
Banks and lending
- Bank lending (gross credit)July 2026 · Central Bank of the UAE
- AED 2,799B▲ +18.1% a year (Q2); +1.5% in July
- Lending to individualsJune 2026 · CBUAE via AGBI
- AED 598B▲ +14% a year; +2.3% in July
- Bank depositsJuly 2026 · Central Bank of the UAE
- AED 3,510B▲ +14.0% a year (Q2)
- Bank capital strengthQ2 2026 · CBUAE Quarterly Economic Review
- 17.0%capital adequacy; core equity (CET1) 14.5%; bad loans 2.8%
- Base interest rateOctober 2026 · Central Bank of the UAE
- 3.90%▲ +0.25 point on 17 Sep 2026
Mortgages
- Mortgage registrations (DLD)Jan–Aug 2026 · A G H analysis of DLD open data
- 30,675▲ +9.9% vs Jan–Aug 2025; value AED 134.5B (+12.6%)
- Mortgages, Jan–SepJan–Sep 2026 · Dubai Land Department
- AED 151.1B34,910 registrations
What it means for property
- Demand is still arriving: Dubai added about 227,000 residents in nine months, and almost 58,000 new businesses opened in the first half. Both feed rental demand first, then purchases.
- Banks are lending hard: credit is up 18% a year and lending to individuals 14%, with strong capital (17% adequacy, 2.8% bad loans). Finance is available.
- Buyers are switching to finance: mortgage registrations are up about 10% this year while total sales fell about 18%. A growing share of buyers are end-users using bank loans rather than short-term cash buyers.
- The headwind is the cost of money: the base rate rose to 3.90% in September. Areas whose net yield sits below borrowing costs depend on price growth, which has slowed.
SME counts and growth will be added once the latest official figures are published.
Area check · 5 years of real sales
Which areas are the safest bets?
We checked every registered sale since 2021 in 37 Dubai communities and asked three simple questions: did prices go up, did they go up steadily, and are buyers still coming?
Prices rose year after year without big swings. The lowest-risk choice.
Prices rose overall, with ups and downs along the way. Good upside, more patience needed.
Fewer buyers, or prices below their peak. Buy only at a clear discount.
- Top 5 steadiest areas, on the map
- 1Nad Al Shiba First12.5% a year · risk 20/100 · 6.3% gross
- 2Zaabeel Second11.1% a year · risk 33/100 · 8.1% gross
- Pins show the approximate centre of each community.
Five-year winners now losing pace
Strong long-term record, but prices fell in the last quarter or sales are well down this year.
- Business Bayquarter −17.6% · YTD sales −53%
- Jabal Ali Firstquarter −17.2% · YTD sales −53%
- Al Hebiah Fifthquarter −6.5% · YTD sales +29%
- Wadi Al Safa 3quarter −18.9% · YTD sales −83%
- Dubai Creek Harbour (Al Khairan First)quarter −6.2% · YTD sales −32%
- Downtown Dubai (Burj Khalifa)quarter −3.8% · YTD sales −41%
Picking up in the last six months
Prices up in both the last quarter and the last six months.
- Jabal Ali Industrial Secondquarter +5.3% · 6 months +24.5%
Where prices moved last quarter, and why
Last 3 complete months against the 3 before, apartment price per sq ft. A price can move because homes really changed value, or because a different mix sold (more off-plan, more small units). The drivers show which.
- Jabal Ali Industrial Second▲ 5.3%
What moved it: off-plan +5.3% (AED 1641→1729/sq ft) · studios and 1-beds 100%→85% of unit sales (smaller units price higher per sq ft) · sales +2500% (52→1352)
- Um Suqaim Third▲ 4.6%
What moved it: mix shift: off-plan share 71%→17% of priced sales · studios and 1-beds 55%→41% of unit sales (smaller units price higher per sq ft) · sales +50% (32→48)
- Dubai South (Madinat Al Mataar)▲ 2.4%
What moved it: off-plan +2.4% (AED 1695→1735/sq ft) · sales +1% (4828→4860)
- Wadi Al Safa 3▼ 18.9%
What moved it: off-plan -17.0% (AED 1665→1382/sq ft) · ready -9.5% (AED 1016→919/sq ft) · sales -44% (336→189)
- Business Bay▼ 17.6%
What moved it: off-plan -10.7% (AED 3527→3150/sq ft) · ready -1.7% (AED 1903→1870/sq ft) · mix shift: off-plan share 56%→35% of priced sales (off-plan sells above ready here) · sales -10% (1438→1293)
- Jabal Ali First▼ 17.2%
What moved it: off-plan -17.3% (AED 2389→1976/sq ft) · sales -47% (1318→700)
| Area | Verdict | Price per sq ft | Growth per year (5y) | Year to date | Last 6 months (H) | Last quarter | Last month | Right now | Gross rental yield | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nad Al Shiba First | Steady growth | AED 2,153 | +12.5% | +16.3% | +3.3% | +0.1% | — | Steady | 6.3% | Low |
| Zaabeel Second | Steady growth | AED 3,140 | +11.1% | +9.5% | −3.9% | +0.3% | −4.0% | Steady | 8.1% | Moderate |
| Al Yelayiss 2 | Steady growth | AED 1,553 | +7.1% | +16.4% | −4.5% | −4.1% | −0.2% | ▼ Falling now | 4.3% | Elevated |
| Dubai Maritime City (Madinat Dubai Almelaheyah) | Steady growth | AED 2,916 | +12.8% | +5.4% | −6.5% | −6.6% | +3.9% | ▼ Falling now | 5.6% | High |
These are the 4 steadiest areas. Approved investors see all 37, including the ones to be careful with. Request full access →
How we work this out
- Price per sq ft: median for apartments and offices over the last 6 months.
- Growth per year: how much that price has risen on average each year, measured quarter by quarter over the last 5 years (from the area's first full year of data if shorter).
- Year to date: price per sq ft from January to the last complete month, against the same months last year. Last quarter: the last 3 complete months against the 3 before. Right now: Picking up = prices up over the quarter and six months; Falling now = down 3% or more over the quarter; Slowing = slightly down with sales well below last year.
- Gross rental yield: registered yearly rent ÷ ready-sale price. Gross means before service charges, maintenance and empty months, so the net return an owner keeps is lower.
- Risk: higher when prices swing a lot, sit below their peak, buyers are falling away, or the area depends heavily on new launches.
- All figures are Dubai Land Department registered sales and rents, updated daily. Past prices don't guarantee future ones.
Conclusion
Where to look, by budget
Ready: Dubai Sports City (ready ~946/sq ft, median AED 900k), Dubailand Residence Complex (~860, AED 760k), International City (~707–1,072, AED 475–755k), Discovery Gardens (~893, AED 745k), Dubai Production City (~1,083, AED 788k).
Off-plan: Majan (Binghatti Skyflame, studios ~AED 570k), Dubai Investment Park (AED 672k).
⚑ Studios dominate the fading off-plan towers; resale before handover will compete with developer stock. Prefer ready 1-beds that rent from day one.
Ready: JVC (~1,242/sq ft, median AED 960k), Arjan (~1,361), Al Furjan (~1,275, AED 1.43M), Silicon Oasis (~950), Motor City (~979), Damac Hills (~1,328), JLT (~1,508, AED 1.58M).
Off-plan with absorption: Arancia Yards 2 (City of Arabia, AED 1.35M), RAW District 2 (AED 1.2M), Damac Lagoons – Valencia (AED 1.26M).
⚑ Ready discount to off-plan is widest here (15–35%). This band is where buying ready and negotiating gives the best entry price.
Ready: Business Bay (~1,774/sq ft vs 2,622 off-plan), Dubai Marina (~2,029, AED 2.25M), Dubai Hills (~2,153), Creek Harbour (~2,286), Sobha Hartland (~1,971), Downtown (~2,584, AED 3.1M).
Off-plan with absorption: Valia, Creek (AED 2.27M, 261 sales), Sobha Central (AED 2.7M).
⚑ Business Bay's ready homes trade 32% below its off-plan launches: strongest value-for-location signal in the central ring.
Established ready: Palm Jumeirah (ready ~2,370/sq ft vs 5,381 off-plan, median AED 6.2M), Dubai Hills villas, Emirates Hills.
Villas off-plan: Sobha Sanctuary (median registered sale AED 4.2M), Greenz by Danube (median registered sale AED 4.5M; developer list prices from AED 3.5M).
Land: 140 plots in Al Yufrah 1, 114 in Al Hebiah Fifth; central plots on Palm and Dubai Hills.
⚑ On the Palm, off-plan is priced at more than twice ready. Ready high-end stock is the safer store of value; villa-plot buying signals new villa supply for 2029–2031.
If you rely on bank finance
Banks lend mostly on completed property. Under UAE Central Bank rules, an expatriate buying a first home up to AED 5M can borrow up to 80% of value (70% above AED 5M; UAE nationals 85% / 75%); second homes are capped lower, off-plan financing at about 50%, and monthly debt repayments at 50% of income. Budget an extra ~7–8% of price for the 4% DLD fee, mortgage registration, valuation, bank and agency fees.
What this means: a buyer relying on a mortgage should target ready units priced inside the bank's valuation, where 20% down buys the asset today — the September data shows this pool growing (mortgage registrations +10%, AED 2–3M sales +15%). Best fits: ready 1–2 beds in JVC, JLT, Dubai Marina, Business Bay, Al Furjan and Sports City, which trade 15–35% below off-plan in the same areas. Avoid stretching for off-plan with a post-handover balloon you plan to refinance — the bank will value the unit at handover against the ready comparables in this report, not the launch price.
Plots · whole buildings · bulk
Big-ticket buyers were active in September
of land changed hands — 909 plot sales, including 140 in Al Yufrah 1 and 114 in Al Hebiah Fifth.
above AED 125M in one month: commercial land in Al Nahda and Al Jafiliya, a Palm Jumeirah villa, Dubai Hills residential land.
refinanced as portfolios — owners of whole floors and buildings releasing equity; plus batches of 6–28 units bought in a single minute.
Selling a plot, a whole building or a portfolio?
We price it against the registered land and bulk deals in your community, and take it to the buyers active in that segment.
Buying land, a building or in bulk?
Approved investors see every large sale with its land number, the bulk batches by project, and the developer sell-through behind each launch.
Area snapshot
Off-plan vs ready, September
| Area | Sales | Off-plan | Off-plan AED/sq ft | Ready AED/sq ft | Ready discount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jumeirah Village Circle | 802 | 54% | 1,526 | 1,242 | 19% |
| Madinat Al Mataar (Dubai South) | 688 | 95% | 1,709 | — | — |
| Majan | 544 | 92% | 1,409 | 1,405 | 0% |
| Business Bay | 422 | 34% | 2,622 | 1,774 | 32% |
| Al Hebiah Fifth (Damac Lagoons) | 384 | 70% | 1,724 | — | — |
| Jabal Ali Industrial Second | 341 | 100% | 1,788 | — | — |
| Dubailand Residence Complex | 309 | 78% | 1,402 | 860 | 39% |
| Al Hebiah First | 306 | 100% | 2,035 | — | — |
| City of Arabia | 298 | 99% | 1,738 | 1,130 | 35% |
| Al Khairan First (Creek) | 292 | 100% | 2,596 | — | — |
| Downtown Jabal Ali | 273 | 96% | 1,613 | 1,116 | 31% |
| Al Yufrah 1 (Sobha Sanctuary) | 254 | 37% | 1,930 | — | — |
Full reports · approved investors
Get the full daily, weekly and monthly reports
- — Weekly and monthly reports in full, every sale and community
- — All communities scored for 5-year growth, stability and risk
- — Developer absorption: which launches sell and which fade
- — Bulk deals, portfolio mortgages and largest sales with land numbers
- — The 10-page investor analysis in English and Arabic
Each request is reviewed by our team. Approval usually takes one business day.
Market information, not financial advice. Mortgage limits summarised from UAE Central Bank regulations; confirm terms with your bank.